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1 <br /> ORANGE COUNTY <br /> BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS <br /> ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT <br /> Meeting Date: April 7, 2026 <br /> Action Agenda <br /> Item No. 7-a <br /> SUBJECT: Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast <br /> DEPARTMENT: County Manager <br /> ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: <br /> Attachment 1. School Membership Kirk Vaughn, (919) 245-2153 <br /> Forecast — Carolina <br /> Demography <br /> UNDER SEPARATE COVER <br /> Attachment 2. School Enrollment <br /> Presentation <br /> To Be Provided Prior to or in <br /> Conjunction with the Meeting <br /> PURPOSE: To receive a report and presentation from Carolina Demography on enrollment <br /> projections for both school districts. <br /> BACKGROUND: Over the past three (3) years the SAPFOTAC, a technical advisory committee <br /> representing the County, the Towns of Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill-Carrboro <br /> City Schools (CHCCS) and Orange County Schools (OCS), have discussed making <br /> improvements to the School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) enrollment <br /> projection, based on commonly identified limitations of the process. <br /> At the December 10, 2024 Business meeting, the Board of County Commissioners authorized <br /> staff to provide notice to the parties of the SAPFO memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that <br /> the student projection methodology will be changed to be one employed by OREd or Carolina <br /> Demography. On March 16, 2025, the SAPFOTAC held its annual meeting, and received <br /> presentations from both consultants. The six (6) entities voted unanimously to recommend <br /> Carolina Demography to provide the future enrollment projections. The technical advisory <br /> committee appreciated the variety of variables that were used in Carolina Demography's previous <br /> enrollment projections, including population estimates, births, approved developments, and <br /> charter school enrollment. Carolina Demography provides enrollment projections for Wake <br /> County and Brunswick County. The Board approved use of Carolina Demography at the April 15, <br /> 2025 Business meeting and approved the contract on at the December 1, 2025 Business meeting. <br /> The report from Carolina Demography breaks down the various local, statewide, and national <br /> demographic factors that impact enrollment for both districts — aging population, declining <br /> birthrate, school choice market share, loss of international migration, and new developments. The <br /> change in international migration has only begun to occur in the last year, and so presents <br />