Agenda - 12-13-1999 - 2 - Laserfiche WebLink

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Contents of a standard sou nal update Transmitted with this report are several documents, charts and naps. These parts of a standard update are provided to school systems which have contracted for update sery ices and have undertaken a full IPSAC study within the last five years with annual updates every year since. The components of an update are: a. A seven to lea year system wide cohort survival forecast based on the 2& day enrollments for the present year and be 20n day eamUmeats for the past nve years. This forecast is disaggregated to elementary, middle and high school grades, and grades within each level. The system -wide forecast provides control totals for several of the more specific forecasts discussed below. b. The disaggmgmu m of the demealary, middle and high school forecasts to a set of building -level forecasts. The dlsagpegadon spreadsheets are for technical r &MM only. Mat of the relevant data from these sheds reappears on Use color 60- eftapadly cowl. c. Revisions b the capacities of schools as provided by the school system will tde development of a new color o tof-capacily dram. This don compares apwd with Wreastod cudlmnats Green cells show adequate capacity ad wed edt show inadequate capacity. Yellow is a two -year wansing that a schod is going old of capacity. d. Color coded 1202 maps showing tine above capacity-forecast relationships. Note that a map is generated only when the colors change, thus some maps are for multiple years. The apphcalle years ore clearly shown on the face of the map. e. Segment details and a corresponding 36x36 "dud cad segment' map. The value of this report relates to the exploration of minor boundary changes to relieve overcrowding and is briefly described on the cover abed of the segment detail I Four 2404 demographic naps: student count K -12, race distribution, density of studonts K -12, art! chungc in counts suite the prior update or full IPSAC study g Vcnfiwuon of par recommendations made by us for the location of new schools, if relevant. This is only done d there have been radical shift in demographics that were unsaid paled when the original recommendation was made. Please rote that studies include several components that do not appear in the annual updates. Tbese include a lard use study, attendance boundary studies, tmnbhple scenarios for the location of new schools, =Wu* medings at the dieWs site. sad conthmod support throughout the academic year for All imam related to the IPSAC packsix Ma_ilinLS In most cases, annual updates arc sent in two packages ten to fourteen days apart The first P:mclwge includes all the items listed above, but without segment details and maps. This gives the client school system an opportunity to review and question the material before the relatively high cost of napping is expended by the lab. This process reduces the bmg -term cost of update projects for all clierus. Peadlhee We have an excellent record of completing these projects several days before an agreed -upon dead Inc. We cannot always, however, agree to the deadline desired by the client, especially in the Fall when %%c have many projects open simultaneously. Note also dot there are two causes of project delays that occur on the client's side — providing TIMS data in a timely fashion, and changing the school capacity statistics after the project has been started it Ch We will, of course, fix any errors dash we have made in our work. If the client suspects that a forecast is unreasonable or is considerably different than it was in the immediate prior year, such discrepancies should be brought to our atlention. We will either provide an explanation of sire dif erenccs and/or recheck our work for errors. Plc= understand that a lakes about Duce years of studies (an original study plus one or two updates) before most of the oscillations in building level forecasts settle down. Even than, some attendance areas remain highly unprodictable, especially those that comprise a relatively large number df mobile home parks. C211in Our client school systems want argwhere from three or four copies of this report to one hundred or more. In order to work at a fixed price for update studies we have adopted a "standard package" which includes three collated and stapled copies of the small format report and one set of segment details and reaps. In addition, the best copy of the small format report is also included (unstapled) for local copying-