Agenda - 12-13-1999 - 2 - Laserfiche WebLink

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Chapel Hill extends into Durham County; this area is not part of the Chapel Hill- Carrboro School District. The two lines (school district boundary and urban services boundary) circumscribe similar, but not identical, areas. The major population center is included in both areas and historical / projected growth of the Urban Services Area is a close approximation of the growth of the school district. (Note that the school district extends farther to the north and west than the urban area, while the urban area extends fiuther east than the school district). For purposes of estimating general population growth.in this report, the description of the Urban Growth Area population is used as a surrogate to estimate historical and projected population growth in the school district. Projected population growth in the urban area is shown on Table 1 and Figure 1. These have been prepared as part of a regional transportation planning project, and are being relied on by area local governments for purposes of anticipating future needs. Student Enrollment Gro wth Growth in student enrollment in the Chapel Hill- Carrboro City . Schools does not necessarily track population growth exactly, although trends will be mirrored. It may be, for example, that if the driving force behind population growth is an influx of families with young children, the rate of growth in student enrollment might exceed the rate.of growth in the general population. Table 2 and Figure 2 show growth in student enrollment over the last 15 years in Chapel Hill - Carrboro City Schools. Data are also shown in component parts of the student population: elementary, middle, and high school. The annual rate of growth in overall student enrollment has been 4.3% over the last decade. In order to project future student enrollment, two methods were employed. The first is a 10 -year projection provided by the consulting firm of Or/Ed Laboratories. (This firm has been employed on three previous occasions to project or provide enrollment data for this school district, and is familiar with the demographics of this area). The combination of good historical data and a short planning horizon (10 years) leads to a reasonably reliable set of year -by -year projections for the short term. These projections show an annual rate of growth in student enrollment of 1.4% over the next decade. The full ORED report is provided here as Attachment 1. The second projection technique is much more general and coarse, with a longer planning horizon. The second set of projections takes the 25 -year projections for general population growth, assumes constant demographic profiles, and yields a projection of student enrollment in 5 -year increments for the next 25 years. While these are less reliable than the first set of projections, they offer a "ballpark" assessment of directions in which we are likely to be moving. This approach yields a 1.2% annual growth in student enrollment over the next 25 years. We also have State projections, prepared by the NC Department of Public Instruction. These figures show annual growth of 1% in student enrollment for the next decade. 4