Agenda - 09-16-2008 - 6e - Laserfiche WebLink

Browse Search

Section 5 - Land Use Scenarios Policy Direction for Land Use Scenarios Introduction In preparing the Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP), the Durham- Chapel Hill - Carrboro Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) has developed a series of alternative land use scenarios. The purpose of these scenarios is to explore how patterns of land use different from those reflected in adopted land use plans would affect travel demand. The MPO staff presented those scenarios to the Transportation Advisory Committee (TAC) in spring 2008. A reasonable question that follows is, "What objectives and policies would the MPO's jurisdictions have to put into place to begin moving the community in the direction outlined in the scenario ?" Below is a preliminary response to the question. This memo presents various sample policy directions that local governments could pursue to begin to implement the scenarios. The policy directions suggested below span a range of complexity and political acceptability. Some are relatively easy to implement, while others may require complex planning studies and revisions to land use codes. They may require significant research, legal advice, and potentially enabling legislation to implement. Some may be inexpensive, while others may require a significant shift in priorities for operating and capital budgets. Note that this list of policy directions is preliminary and not exhaustive. Other policy directions or variations of these might be the best fit for the implementing the changes that the scenarios envision. Clearly, broader discussion with a variety of stakeholders about long range community goals and objectives would be needed to reach agreement how best to proceed. Scenario 1 -- Baseline The baseline scenario represents the fundamental projection of the MPO's future for purposes of transportation modeling. Fundamentally, the scenario assumes that land is developed over the next few decades in a manner consistent with the adopted land use plans, policies, and official actions of MPO jurisdictions. Projections of employment and housing were developed by determining what amount of housing and employment could be expected from each of several hundred traffic analysis zones, based on the future land use anticipated. Assumptions are used to account for: a) land undevelopable for environmental reasons (floodplains, stream buffers, etc.); b) the density and intensity of future development; and c) the proportion of development that might be expected by the 2035 planning horizon of the LRTP. The Baseline Scenario forms the basis for, the adopted LRTP and the Air Quality Conformity Determination. Scenario 2 -- Build -Out The Build -Out Scenario is similar to the Baseline Scenario in that it represents the amount of housing and employment that could be expected if the MVO area were to develop in a manner consistent with adopted land use plans, policies, and official actions of MPO jurisdictions. However, the Build -Out Scenario is not "time constrained." It does not focus on a future 5-21