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APPENDIX
<br />pRq~ SCHOOL IMPACT FEES: Ct~ta,PEL Hlu.-C,a1~sOR0 Cm($CHOOLS
<br />Orange County, North Caro-ina
<br />This second system is known as the CAPS system or Certificate of Adequate Public Schools. The
<br />SAPFO CAPS system records new development approvals and determines whether capacity
<br />will be available in the prescribed year. If capacity is projected to be available then the
<br />development is allowed to proceed; if capacity is not projected to be available, the certificate is
<br />not issued until capacity is made available either by changes in enrollment or new capital
<br />improvements.
<br />This dual projection system works well because it helps synchronize capital needs and future
<br />growth. In other words, it monitors the historic trends and. adds and reflects new growth
<br />patterns that may match or exceed past growth. In established, constant growth school districts,
<br />the SAPFO CIP system usually adequately reflects future growth. However, in a school district
<br />where growth is occurring where it has not occurred before, such as the portion of the City of
<br />Mebane located in the Orange County School District, then using just the SAPFO CIP projection
<br />method underestimates future C]P needs since historical growth does not capture this new
<br />development trend.
<br />Therefore, in order to reflect more realistic capital planning needs for the Orange County School
<br />District, it is suggested that the historical projections of the SAPFO CIP system be layered with
<br />approved yet unbuilt development in the Mebane area (using the CAPS method). The CAPS
<br />method employs student generation rates by type of housing unit to estimate future student
<br />enrollment. This allows for a more realistic capital needs analysis to determine the need for
<br />additional capacity from new growth.
<br />As shown in Figure A7, current enrollment in Orange County Schools is 6,817. By the school
<br />year 2016-17, County Schools are projected to have a total enrollment of 8,764, an increase of
<br />1,947 students. This represents an average annual growth rate of approximately 2.9 percent.
<br />Yearly detail by school level is provided below.
<br />Figure A7. Projected Public School Enrollments: Orange County Schools
<br /> c..__.. _._.... _. ..
<br />Actual" Projectcrl "'
<br />....
<br /> 73aseYr. 1 v ' 3 ' 4 5 6' 7= 8 9 10 Avb Gru~ti:
<br /> 2006-07 2007-08 2006-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2D12-13 2013-14 2014-]5 ZQ1516 2Q16-17 Rate
<br />ENROLLMENT'S
<br />Orange County Schools
<br />Elementary 3,072 3,150 3,311 3,368 3,450 3,532 3,615 3,697 3,779 3,861 3,944 28%
<br />Middle 1,576 1,624 1,706 1,721 1,763 1,805 1,847 1,890 1,932 1,974 2,016 2.8%
<br />High 2,169. 2,223 2,330 2,395 2,453 2,512 2,570 2,629 2,687 2,746 2,804 2.9%
<br />Total 6,817 6,997 7,347 7,484 7,667 7,850 8,033 8,215 8,398 8,581 8,764 2.9%
<br />Net Increase 97 180 350 137 183 183 183 183 183 183 183
<br />Total Increase 1,947
<br />* Acmnl enrollment figures (SAPFOTAC Annual Report 2007; for 2006-07, nchral as of November 15, 2006, date of membership).
<br />** Orange Cmrnty Planning
<br />Sources: Orange County; SAPFOTACAnmrat Report 2007
<br /> A -10
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