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i ~~ <br />organic gases', 52% of the nitrogen oxides' and 69% of carbon monoxide Z. In Los Angeles, <br />motor vehicles and their fuels account for about 90% of the cancer risk3. These toxins, along with <br />dumped motor oils, wash into our streams and. bays, becoming major water pollutants. <br />Nevertheless, U.S. vehicle miles traveled (VMT) grew at well over 3 percent per year during the <br />1980s, and is forecast to increase another 25 percent per capita between 1990 and 2010.4' S What <br />drove this growth and what can be done to rein it in? These questions have stimulated vigorous <br />discussions in the transportation community. <br />Research on How Urban Design Impacts VMT <br />How does sprawl drive up VMT? Low density areas are designed to force residents to drive for <br />most trips. Their zoning requires front and side yard setbacks, wide streets and two or more off- <br />street parking places, reducing densities and separating destinations. Many suburbs prohibit <br />sidewalks and convenient nearby markets, restaurants and other commerce. These government <br />mandates force destinations farther apart, lengthening trips to where non-automotive modes <br />become less viable. <br />Contrast this with traditional cities which grew up around pedestrians, allowing residents to walk, <br />bicycle or take transit to jobs, corner markets and other nearby commerce. They have relatively <br />high densities: ranging from row houses on narrow lots through 3 to 4 story walk-ups to high-rise <br />elevator apartments, condos and co-ops--at 20 to 200 households/residential acre. They are <br />proximate to major job and shopping centers, but have their own local shopping and services, and <br />sidewalks and other amenities to encourage walking. They have excellent access to transit. They <br />were so complete that many residents seldom left them. These areas are now the central and <br />adjacent areas of our older cities and some of the older suburbs. Smart growth replicates <br />traditional city form. <br />But can we measure the reductions in driving sufficient to provide reproducible emission credits <br />to smart growth? Some progress is evident. <br />In a survey of 32 major cities around the world, Peter Newman and Jeffrey Kenworthy found <br />that the residents of American cities consumed nearly twice as much gasoline per capita as <br />Australians, nearly four times as much as the more compact European cities and ten times that <br />of three compact westernized Asian cities, Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo.s However, they <br />lacked measurements of VMT, or data for neighborhoods rather than whole metropolitan areas, <br />split into central cities and suburbs. Their data suggest that driving is reduced 30 percent every <br />time density doubles. If so, sprawling suburban areas would benefit from modest increases in <br />density. A few 3 to 5 story limited-parking condos or apartment houses replacing parking lots or <br />other underused land along major streets could double their density, cutting household mileage 30 <br />percent. If this relationship, a reduction in driving of 30% every time density doubles, holds up to <br />the density of Manhattan, its families would drive only 8%, or 1/12, as much as nearby <br />suburbanites. <br />Travel surveys, where household residents log each trip, give more direct estimates of VMT. <br />Newman and Kenworthy reported results of a travel survey of United Kingdom cities, which <br />2 <br />