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i ~~ Smart Growth -- As Seen From the Air Convenient Neighborhood, Skip the Car John W. Holtzclaw Consultant, Natural Resources Defense Council; and Chair, Sierra Club Transportation Com. 1508 Taylor, San Francisco CA 94133 (Presented at the Air & Waste Management Association's 93rd Annual Meeting & Exhibition, 23 June 2000, Salt Lake City, UT) ABSTRACT The design. of our urban areas and their transportation systems strongly influences emissions of urban air pollutants. Smart Growth can increase neighborhood convenience, consequently reducing driving to one-fourth or less, by: • increasing neighborhood density to raise the number of nearby destinations, • including markets, restaurants and other commerce and services in residential neighborhoods (mixed-use), • locating neighborhoods close to job centers, • providing safe, attractive and convenient pedestrian and bicycle conditions, • limiting parking, and • providing frequent, convenient, affordable and safe public transit. Such neighborhoods encourage walking, bicycling and use of transit for most trips. Equations developed from research using all these variables except parking in the Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco regions predicts 79 to 96% of the variance in auto ownership and 80 to 94% of the variance in driving (vehicle miles traveled -- VMT) for neighborhoods within those regions. Residential density is the most effective urban variable in predicting auto ownership and driving. The next most effective variable is the amount of nearby public transit. Finally comes pedestrian and bicycle friendliness, including the fineness of the street grid, provision of public sidewalks and weather protection, location of buildings close to the sidewalk rather than behind parking lots, and traffic safety. Center proximity slightly improved the prediction of VMT in the San Francisco area, the only area where data. was available. We had no measure of the amount of private and public parking by neighborhood. The success of these neighborhoods in attracting and retaining residents also depends upon: • nearby parks, creeks, recreation areas, and other open spaces and wildlife habitat, • amactive, quality architecture of the neighborhood and buildings, • quality construction, built to last much longer than housing or shopping centers located in sprawl. INTRODUCTION Motor Vehicle Pollution Motor vehicles are the single largest source of urban air pollution and a major source of water pollution. In the San Francisco Bay Area, for instance, on-road vehicles emit 49% of the reactive