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Preliminary CHCCS Student Projections c1)
<br /> Updated 10/11/02 to reflect revised OC Planning Projections
<br /> Elementary aw
<br /> School Year 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
<br /> Actual 4,444 4,474 4,555
<br /> Tischler 4,678 4,801 4,924 5,047 5,170 5,293 5,416 5,539 5,662 5,785
<br /> OC Planning 4,760 4,923 5,080 5,231 5,377 5,517 5,626 5,736 5,845 5,928
<br /> 10 Year Growth 4,735 4,915 5,050 5,186 5,364 5,418 5,472 5,527 5,582 5,638
<br /> 5 Year Growth 4,810 5,061 5,264 5,459 5,682 5,739 5,796 5,854 5,913 5,972
<br /> 3 Year Growth 4,745 4,935 5,090 1 5,233 5,414 1 5,4681 5,523 5,578 5,634 5,634
<br /> Average 4,746 4,927 5,082 5,231 5,401 5,487 1 5,567 5,647 5,727 5,791
<br /> Capacity-100%Level of Servi 4,3021 4,302 1 4,302 1 4,9 4,921 4,921 5,521 5,521 5,521 5,521 5,521 5,521 5,521
<br /> 105%Level of Service 1 4,5171 4,517 1 4,517 1 51167 5,167 5,7 5,797 5,797 5,797 5,797 5,797 5,797
<br /> Actual-%Level of Service 1 103.3%1 104.0%1 105.90/,
<br /> Average-%Level of Service 96.4% 100.1% .8% 97.8%1 99.49/6 100.8% 102.3% 103.7% 104.9%
<br /> Elementary#9 opens in fall 2003 with Elementary#10 opens in fall 2006
<br /> Middle additional 619 seats with 600 additional seats
<br /> School Year 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-0 5 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
<br /> Actual 2,326 2,540 2,604
<br /> Tischler 2,745 2,885 3,026 3,166 3,307 3,448 3,588 3,729 3,870 4,010
<br /> OC Planning 2,711 2,780 2,845 2,905 2,961 3,012 1 3,085 3,157 3,230 3,304
<br /> 10 Year Growth 2,677 2,644 2,710 2,807 2,861 2,991 3,120 3,295 3,328 3,361
<br /> 5 Year Growth 2,679 2,662 2,755 1 2,889 2,991 3,204 3,404 3,630 3,667 3,703
<br /> 3 Year Growth 2,685 2,651 2,712 2,815 2,881 3,034 3,170 3,349 3,383 3,417
<br /> Average 2,699 2,724 2,810 2,916 3,000 3,138 3,273 3,432 3,496 3,559
<br /> Capacity-100%Level of Servi 2,108 2, 0 2,840 2,840 2,840 2,840 2,840 2,840 2,840 2,840 2,840 2,840 2,840
<br /> 107%Level of Service 2,256 843,039 3,039 3,039 3,039 3,039 3,039 3,039 3,039 3,039 3,039 3,039 3,039
<br /> Actual-%Level of Service 1 110.3%1 89.4% 91.7%
<br /> Average-%Level of Service 95.0% 95.9% 98.9% 102.701 105.6% 110.5%1 115.3% 120.8%1 123.1%
<br /> High
<br /> School Year 2000-01 2001-02 12002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
<br /> Actual 2,815 2,963 3,184
<br /> Tischler 3,423 3,662 3,900 4,139 4,378 4,617 4,856 5,094 5,333 5,572
<br /> OC Planning 3,202 3,285 3,364 3,437 3,506 3,569 3,627 3,685 3,743 3,826
<br /> 10 Year Growth 3,285 3,497 3,608 3,660 3,738 3,786 3,879 3,942 4,161 4,319
<br /> 5 Year Growth 3,278 3,493 3,611 3,665 3,759 3,838 3,976 4,104 4,426 4,673
<br /> 3 Year Growth 3,327 3,594 3,741 3,813 3,904 3,940 4,048 4,130 4,371 4,557
<br /> Averse 3,303 3,506 3,645 3,743 3,857 3,950 4,077 4,191 4,407 4,589
<br /> Capacity-100%Level of Servi 3,035 3,035 3,035 3,035 3,035 4,03 4,035 4,035 4,035 4,035 4,035 4,035 4,035
<br /> 110%Level of Service 3,339 3,339 3,339 3,339 3,339 4,4 4,439 4,439 4,439 4,439 4,439 4,439 4,439
<br /> Actual-%Level of Service 92.8% 97.6% 104.9%
<br /> Average-%Level of Service 108.8% 90.3% 92.8% 95.6% 97.9% 101.0% 103.9%1 109.20/(
<br /> high school#3 opens in fall 2005 with 1,000
<br /> additional seats Q
<br /> indicates first year that district surpasses the current Schools APFO recommended Level of Service S
<br /> indicates year that highest level of service is reached before new seats are available
<br /> �b
<br /> t�l It is important to note that this reflects the 20th day of membership for school year ending 2003 and does not reflect the date of membership as outlined in by the Schools
<br /> Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance(which is November 15,2002). Staff will be working to update membership numbers at that time and will bring forward a set of"official"
<br /> membership numbers as of November 15,2002.
<br /> (2) The Tischler Model provides for the"Linear Method"of projections for both CHCCS and OCS. Original projections used in prior years projection models included the"Linear !�
<br /> Extrapolation Method"for CHCCS.
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