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<br />estimates of the risk (i.e., probability) that water stored in OWASA's reservoir system will <br />decline to unacceptably low levels within the foreseeable future. Until improved or alternative <br />criteria are developed, such guidance shall be based on a five percent or greater risk that total <br />reservoir storage will decline to 20 percent or less of total storage capacity within an 18 month <br />period. This guidance shall apply to the initial declaration of a Water Supply Shortage or <br />Emergency and shall inform subsequent declarations of more or less severe Water Supply <br />Shortages or Emergencies. <br />IV. B. Water Treatment, Storage, or Distribution Capacity Shortage <br />In addition to conditions caused by drought, OWASA may declare a Water Supply Shortage or <br />Emergency whenever customer demand - as averaged over three consecutive days -exceed 85 <br />percent of OWASA's capability of treating and delivering water. T'he stage and duration of <br />such a Water Supply Shortage or Emergency shall be guided by the degree to which customer <br />demands approach or exceed OWASA's capacity to meet those demands, and by the degree to <br />which conservation efforts successfully reduce short-term demands. <br />IV. C. Natural and Man-Made Disasters and Catastrophic Equipment and Plant Failure <br />Shortage <br />Any other circumstances, including service losses caused by equipment or facility failure, <br />human error, deliberate act, weather, or other natural disaster, which constrain OWASA's <br />water supply, treatment, or distribution capacity to less than that reasonably needed by its <br />customers, shall constitute a Water Supply Shortage up to and including a Water Supply <br />Emergency, requiring immediate action by OWASA. <br />Article V -Required Actions Under Water Supply Shortage or Emergency <br />Conditions <br />In the event of a water supply shortage, OWASA shall, using its best professional judgment, <br />determine which of the following stages is the most appropriate response to the estimated level <br />of risk. <br />V. A. Water Supply Advisory <br />A Water Supply Advisory shall represent an alert to the public of a potential shortage and <br />notification that water use restrictions may be imposed if the water supply and/or demand <br />conditions do not improve in the near future. In the event of a declared Water Supply <br />Advisory: <br />8 <br />