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19 <br /> FINAL DRAFT-5-27-26 <br /> Figure 2. Projected conversion of Orange County farmland to development through 2040 <br /> (Hunter, 2022; American Farmland Trust, 2022) <br /> Business as Usual: 14,300 acres Runaway Sprawl: 19,900 <br /> of farmland lost of farmland lost <br /> Converted from <br /> - Farmland* <br /> _ to Development <br /> -i <br /> 54 <br /> .I <br /> rd <br /> y� <br /> https://deelopment2090.farmland.org/ `Farmland=cropland+pasture+woodland associated with farms <br /> Most of the farmland conversion in Orange County is projected to involve low- <br /> density residential development as opposed to urban, commercial, or industrial <br /> land uses (Figure 3). <br /> Low-density residential development is especially harmful for farming because it <br /> fragments agricultural land, thereby restricting its potential agricultural uses, and <br /> negatively impacts operations of adjacent farms through effects including run- <br /> off and beneficial habitat destruction (Box 1 ). Low-density residential <br /> development also inflates the prices of adjacent farmland to make acquiring <br /> farmland difficult or impossible for new and beginning farmers. <br /> Low-density residential development also paves the way for further <br /> development (Freedgood, 2020). In North Carolina areas where low-density <br /> residential development is occurring, agricultural land is five times more likely to <br /> be converted to urban and highly developed uses than agricultural land in <br /> areas without it (Freedgood, 2020). Farmers in areas with development pressure <br /> and high land values have been characterized as exhibiting impermanence <br /> syndrome---a shortening of their planning horizon associated with uncertainty <br /> and apprehension about the future (Adelaja et al., 2011 ; Perrin et al., 2020). The <br /> impermanence syndrome, in the context of the opportunity to profit from sale of <br /> farmland, can make farmers reluctant to invest in the farming operation and <br /> can impel them to sell their farmland for development. <br /> 17 <br />