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33 <br /> Slide#6 <br /> What is an mrolimcnt forccast... <br /> What is it? What isn't it? <br /> A scientific"most An g o <br /> . . <br /> correctlylikely"scenario based <br /> guess at what <br /> on all inputs. . enrollment <br /> questioned. what enrollment will in 10 years. <br /> be in 10 years. <br /> Nathan Dollar noted we are experiencing some of the most demographic uncertainty in the <br /> general population that has been seen in 50 years, which was affecting student membership populations. <br /> Slide#7 <br /> Key Considerations — Forecasts <br /> General Considerations: North Carolina Specific Considerations: <br /> 1. Historical Enrollment Patterns 1. The impact of The Opportunity Scholarship Program <br /> 2. School Capacity and Attendance Zones expansion <br /> 3. Demographic processes 2. Charter School proliferation <br /> • Births <br /> • Migration <br /> • Age, sex, race, Hispanic Origin trends <br /> 4. Built environment <br /> 1. Building permits <br /> 2. Known development areas (especially residential) <br /> and timing <br /> 5. Economics <br /> 6. COVID-19 <br /> T �T� CAROLINA C A R O L I N A <br /> 16 V 1 r carolinademography.cpc.unc.edu DEMOGRAPHY <br /> POPULATION CENTER <br /> Nathan Dollar explained that their methodology considered historical enrollment patterns, school <br /> capacity and attendance zones, demographic processes (births, migration, age, sex, race, Hispanic origin <br /> trends), the building environment including approved and proposed developments, economic variables, <br />