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30 <br /> The ten-year enrollment projection estimates that enrollment in the CHCCS district will decline by 1,070 <br /> students, or 10% and OCS will decline by S93 students, or 9%. The major challenges identified for CHCCS <br /> is declining birthrate in the district and declining in-migration post-Covid.The major challenges identified <br /> for OCS are declining market share and possible out-migration from birth to kindergarten, as well as a lack <br /> of new development to offset these decreases. <br /> Kirk Vaughn, Budget Director, introduced the presentation, explaining this was the culmination of <br /> changes to the forecasting process over recent years, moving from internal modeling to external expertise. <br /> This was the first year of Carolina Demography presenting on underlying enrollment variables. He noted <br /> the forecast showed declining enrollment, meaning there is no need to build additional school facilities. <br /> He introduced Nathan Dollar, Executive Director of Carolina Demography. <br /> Nathan Dollar made the following presentation: <br /> Slide#1 <br /> ForecastReport: . •e <br /> Daily Membership SY 2025-26 <br /> ASchool - 0 <br /> Dollar,Orange County Board of Commissioners <br /> Dr. Nathan <br /> Executive Director, Carolina Demography <br /> Data for ' • • Christopher Dick <br /> President, Demographic Analytics Advisors <br /> CAROLINA <br /> 1 R• 1 <br /> [�l • .•' •• .• • '• <br />