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29 <br /> A motion was made by Vice-Chair Fowler, seconded by Commissioner Greene, to open the public <br /> hearing. <br /> VOTE: UNANIMOUS <br /> There was no one signed up to speak. <br /> A motion was made by Commissioner Greene, seconded by Commissioner McKee, to close the <br /> public hearing. <br /> VOTE: UNANIMOUS <br /> A motion was made by Commissioner Bedford, seconded by Vice-Chair Fowler, to Approve the <br /> Statement of Consistency(Attachment 4) and Zoning Atlas Amendments (Attachment 5). <br /> VOTE: UNANIMOUS <br /> 6. Regular Agenda <br /> None. <br /> 7. Reports <br /> a. Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast <br /> The Board received a report and presentation from Carolina Demography on enrollment projections for <br /> both school districts. <br /> BACKGROUND: Over the past three (3)years the SAPFOTAC, a technical advisory committee representing <br /> the County, the Towns of Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS) <br /> and Orange County Schools (OCS), have discussed making improvements to the School Adequate Public <br /> Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) enrollment projection, based on commonly identified limitations of the <br /> process. <br /> At the December 10, 2024 Business meeting, the Board of County Commissioners authorized staff to <br /> provide notice to the parties of the SAPFO memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that the student <br /> projection methodology will be changed to be one employed by OREd or Carolina Demography.On March <br /> 16, 2025, the SAPFOTAC held its annual meeting, and received presentations from both consultants. The <br /> six (6) entities voted unanimously to recommend Carolina Demography to provide the future enrollment <br /> projections. The technical advisory committee appreciated the variety of variables that were used in <br /> Carolina Demography's previous enrollment projections, including population estimates, births, approved <br /> developments, and charter school enrollment. Carolina Demography provides enrollment projections for <br /> Wake County and Brunswick County. The Board approved use of Carolina Demography at the April 15, <br /> 2025 Business meeting and approved the contract on at the December 1, 2025 Business meeting. <br /> The report from Carolina Demography breaks down the various local, statewide, and national <br /> demographic factors that impact enrollment for both districts — aging population, declining birthrate, <br /> school choice market share, loss of international migration, and new developments. The change in <br /> international migration has only begun to occur in the last year, and so presents challenges for the long- <br /> term projection.The impact of federal policies on international migration and school enrollment will need <br /> to be followed in subsequent enrollment forecasts. <br />