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34 <br /> 1 variables, COVID-19 impacts, and North Carolina-specific factors like opportunity scholarship expansion <br /> 2 and charter school proliferation. He said they also look at homeschool trends. <br /> 3 <br /> 4 Slide#8 <br /> Key Considerations — Forecasts (cont.) <br /> Bold=Complete Italics=Future Work <br /> We begin with a weighted grade progression methodology <br /> • Look, by school and feeder school patterns,at the ratio of students in the prior grade last year, <br /> versus current grade this year. Ratio larger than one implies in movement, lower than one <br /> attrition or out movement. <br /> • Forecast this ratio into the future. <br /> We tested several different weighting regimes and finalized with a 10 year weighted average with <br /> weighting skewed slightly to more recent data. <br /> Added in housing-based growth by attendance zone <br /> Compared differences based on GPR vs housing growth <br /> Added in net additional students based on housing growth. <br /> Adjust for changes in market share <br /> CAROLINA carolinademography.cpc.unc.edu CAR 0 L I N A, UV� <br /> POP D E M 0 G R L P H Y <br /> 11LATION CENTER <br /> 5 <br /> 6 <br /> 7 Slide#9 <br /> P, <br /> vivel Context <br /> 9 <br /> 10 Slide#10 <br />