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33 <br /> What is an enrollment forecast... and what it isn't <br /> What is it? What isn't it? <br /> g o <br /> likely"scenario based planning .. <br /> . . . .. . d <br /> complete],if used will <br /> on all inputs. correctly and .. in <br /> questioned. <br /> be in 10 years. <br /> 2 Nathan Dollar noted we are experiencing some of the most demographic uncertainty in the <br /> 3 general population that has been seen in 50 years, which was affecting student membership <br /> 4 populations. <br /> 5 <br /> 6 Slide#7 <br /> Key Considerations — Forecasts <br /> General Considerations: North Carolina Specific Considerations: <br /> 1. Historical Enrollment Patterns 1. The impact of The Opportunity Scholarship Program <br /> 2. School Capacity and Attendance Zones expansion <br /> 3. Demographic processes <br /> 2. Charter School proliferation <br /> • Births <br /> • Migration <br /> • Age,sex, race,Hispanic Origin trends <br /> 4. Built environment <br /> 1. Building permits <br /> 2. Known development areas(especially residential) <br /> and timing <br /> 5. Economics <br /> 6. COVID-19 <br /> CAROLINA C A R O L I N A <br /> carol inademography.cpc.unc.edu DEMOGRAPHY <br /> POPl1LATION CENTER <br /> 7 <br /> 8 Nathan Dollar explained that their methodology considered historical enrollment patterns, <br /> 9 school capacity and attendance zones, demographic processes (births, migration, age, sex, race, Hispanic <br /> 10 origin trends), the building environment including approved and proposed developments, economic <br />