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30 <br /> 1 term projection. The impact of federal policies on international migration and school enrollment will <br /> 2 need to be followed in subsequent enrollment forecasts. <br /> 3 The ten-year enrollment projection estimates that enrollment in the CHCCS district will decline by 1,070 <br /> 4 students, or 10% and OCS will decline by 593 students, or 9%.The major challenges identified for CHCCS <br /> 5 is declining birthrate in the district and declining in-migration post-Covid.The major challenges identified <br /> 6 for OCS are declining market share and possible out-migration from birth to kindergarten, as well as a <br /> 7 lack of new development to offset these decreases. <br /> 8 <br /> 9 Kirk Vaughn, Budget Director, introduced the presentation, explaining this was the culmination <br /> 10 of changes to the forecasting process over recent years, moving from internal modeling to external <br /> 11 expertise.This was the first year of Carolina Demography presenting on underlying enrollment variables. <br /> 12 He noted the forecast showed declining enrollment, meaning there is no need to build additional school <br /> 13 facilities. He introduced Nathan Dollar, Executive Director of Carolina Demography. <br /> 14 <br /> 15 Nathan Dollar made the following presentation: <br /> 16 <br /> 17 Slide#1 <br /> Forecast Report: . • <br /> D Daily • ' • • <br /> School Years1 . • • 2035-36 <br /> Orange Board ofCommissioners <br /> s� <br /> Dr. Nathan <br /> Dollar, PhD <br /> Executive Director, Carolina •• • <br /> Data for the People Christopher Dick <br /> President, Demographic Analytics Advisors <br /> l�l •• .• • <br /> HY <br /> 18 <br /> 19 <br /> 20 <br /> 21 <br /> 22 <br /> 23 <br />