Orange County NC Website
Browse       Search
29 <br /> 1 A motion was made by Vice-Chair Fowler, seconded by Commissioner Greene,to open the public <br /> 2 hearing. <br /> 3 <br /> 4 VOTE: UNANIMOUS <br /> 5 <br /> 6 There was no one signed up to speak. <br /> 7 <br /> 8 A motion was made by Commissioner Greene, seconded by Commissioner McKee, to close the <br /> 9 public hearing. <br /> 10 <br /> 11 VOTE: UNANIMOUS <br /> 12 <br /> 13 A motion was made by Commissioner Bedford, seconded by Vice-Chair Fowler, to Approve the <br /> 14 Statement of Consistency(Attachment 4) and Zoning Atlas Amendments (Attachment 5). <br /> 15 <br /> 16 VOTE: UNANIMOUS <br /> 17 <br /> 18 6. Regular Agenda <br /> 19 None. <br /> 20 <br /> 21 7. Reports <br /> 22 a. Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast <br /> 23 The Board received a report and presentation from Carolina Demography on enrollment projections for <br /> 24 both school districts. <br /> 25 <br /> 26 BACKGROUND: Over the past three (3) years the SAPFOTAC, a technical advisory committee <br /> 27 representing the County, the Towns of Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City <br /> 28 Schools (CHCCS) and Orange County Schools (OCS), have discussed making improvements to the School <br /> 29 Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) enrollment projection, based on commonly identified <br /> 30 limitations of the process. <br /> 31 <br /> 32 At the December 10, 2024 Business meeting, the Board of County Commissioners authorized staff to <br /> 33 provide notice to the parties of the SAPFO memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that the student <br /> 34 projection methodology will be changed to be one employed by OREd or Carolina Demography. On <br /> 35 March 16, 2025, the SAPFOTAC held its annual meeting, and received presentations from both <br /> 36 consultants. The six (6) entities voted unanimously to recommend Carolina Demography to provide the <br /> 37 future enrollment projections. The technical advisory committee appreciated the variety of variables <br /> 38 that were used in Carolina Demography's previous enrollment projections, including population <br /> 39 estimates, births, approved developments, and charter school enrollment. Carolina Demography <br /> 40 provides enrollment projections for Wake County and Brunswick County. The Board approved use of <br /> 41 Carolina Demography at the April 15, 2025 Business meeting and approved the contract on at the <br /> 42 December 1, 2025 Business meeting. <br /> 43 <br /> 44 The report from Carolina Demography breaks down the various local, statewide, and national <br /> 45 demographic factors that impact enrollment for both districts — aging population, declining birthrate, <br /> 46 school choice market share, loss of international migration, and new developments. The change in <br /> 47 international migration has only begun to occur in the last year, and so presents challenges for the long- <br />