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15 <br /> FY2026-36 Recommended Capital Investment Plan <br /> Debt Service to General Fund Revenue Policy Compliance FY2026-36 <br /> 22% <br /> 19,J15o 19.51% <br /> 18.61% 13.60% 18.63% <br /> 18,30% <br /> 1].71% <br /> 16% <br /> 14% 13.69 <br /> 12.J8% <br /> 12% <br /> 30% <br /> FY2026-27 FY2027-23 FY2028-29 FY2029-30 FY2030-31 FY2031-32 FY2032-33 FY2033-34 FY 2034-M FY2035-36 <br /> �PoIlryTarget �Pro]e[tetl <br /> ORANGE COUNTY <br /> 19 NORTH CAR(7I.INA <br /> 1 <br /> 2 Travis Myren explained that the debt service to general fund revenue rises above the 15%target <br /> 3 for several years beginning in 2028-29. <br /> 4 Commissioner Carter asked about interest rate impacts in the current environment. <br /> 5 Travis Myren explained they conservatively estimate around 4% rate over the course of a 20- <br /> 6 year bond. He noted that general obligation bonds for schools are backed by the county's full faith and <br /> 7 credit and carry lower rates, especially for AAA-rated counties like Orange County. <br /> 8 Commissioner Portie-Ascott noticed that the CIP was prepared estimating a moderate economic <br /> 9 growth of 2%. She asked if that is consistent with previous years' estimates. <br /> 10 Travis Myren confirmed this was consistent with prior years. He said that metric is important for <br /> 11 debt service calculations, as tax base growth increases the value of a penny for debt service. <br /> 12 Commissioner Portie-Ascott asked what will happen if there is a recession and no growth. <br /> 13 Travis Myren said that is something to be cognizant of when taking on general obligation bonds <br /> 14 because the county must legally make those payments before paying back any other obligations. He said <br /> 15 he will be implementing some tools in the operating budget to respond to an economic downturn, <br /> 16 especially as it relates to fuel prices and there will be more to come on that front. <br /> 17 Commissioner McKee expressed concern about the debt service implications, noting that over <br /> 18 the 10-year period, they were pushing $1 billion of borrowing and that debt service would increase from <br /> 19 12% of revenue to 17-18% from 2028-29 through 2034-35, representing about 3 cents in tax increases <br /> 20 just for debt service without any operating changes. <br /> 21 <br /> 22 <br />