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112 <br /> INFORMATIONAL SECTION Page 118 <br /> Enrollment Trends and Forecast <br /> Over the 10 years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the District saw steady enrollment growth, <br /> with average growth just under 1% each year. Post-COVID trends and recent political action <br /> have created uncertainty for families around the District in the decision of where their children <br /> will receive their education. The District has experienced a steady decline in enrollment since the <br /> onset of the pandemic. The graph below shows the trend of actual student enrollment across the <br /> last 10 years and includes the District's current (40th Day) enrollment for FY 2025-26: <br /> 14,000 <br /> 13,500 <br /> G1 <br /> 13,000 <br /> a. <br /> 12,500 12,239 12,296 12,270 <br /> ani 12,000 1,764 <br /> 11,510 <br /> Q11,500 11,369 11,266 <br /> 11,065 <br /> ao <br /> 11,000 10,773 <br /> > 10,482 <br /> 10,500 r <br /> 10,000 <br /> 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 <br /> Year <br /> *The 10,773 enrollment number is the enrollment recorded on the 40t1i day of the current school year. State <br /> allotments are now based on the prior year's recorded ADM. The District uses a cohort-survival method of <br /> projection using the final enrollment count of the previous year in its local allotments.It does not reflect actual <br /> students in seats as of writing. <br /> It is important to note that the District is funded based on the State's projection of enrollment, <br /> adjusted for charter school students and out of district students. That adjusted enrollment is the <br /> 10,741 ADM number previously discussed in the continuation budget narrative. The breakdown <br /> of the FY 2026 40th day enrollment compared to the prior year's actual final enrollment is <br /> highlighted in the table below: <br /> FY 25 Final to FY 26 40"Day <br /> FY 2025 FY 2026 <br /> Final 40"Day <br /> Enrollment Enrollment Change Percent <br /> Elementary School 4,541 4,308 (233) -5.5% <br /> Middle School 2,658 2,581 (77) -2.9% <br /> High School 3,842 3,860 18 0.5% <br /> Other 24 25 1 4.1% <br /> Total 11,065 10,773 (291) -2.6% <br /> Chapel Hill—Carrboro City Schools—FY 2026-27 Superintendent's Budget Request ffr rd 3 FET4E <br />