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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 8 <br /> 165,958 <br /> 152.700 <br /> 136.268 <br /> 130.954 <br /> I ' <br /> 11=.55= <br /> I. <br /> I <br /> 2021 2023 1011 <br /> ■ Domestic 0 International <br /> Source:2025 Vintage Population Eshmates, U.S. Census Bureau <br /> Understanding how changes in international migration may be affecting student membership is challenging because <br /> we have no data on the nativity (i.e., US-Born/Foreign-Born) of students nor their parents. A potential proxy to look at <br /> changes in the foreign-born population, as well as impacts of international migration changes on student membership <br /> forecasts is to look at the change in the population of English Language Learners (ELL) in public schools. While this is <br /> clearly an imperfect proxy for change in the foreign-born population served by North Carolina public schools, it does <br /> have a key benefit: the data lag time is much less than other potential sources, such as the Census Bureau's <br /> American Community Survey. The chart below shows the yearly ELL enrollment for the state of North Carolina. <br /> English Language Learners (ELLs) <br /> The headcount of English Language Learners (ELL) serves as a key indicator for potential shifts in the foreign-born <br /> population. ELL headcount in North Carolina has followed an upward trajectory over the last decade, growing from <br /> roughly 96,000 students in 2016-17 to nearly 179,000 in 2024-25. While there was a minor dip in enrollment during the <br /> 2020-21 school year likely due to pandemic-related disruptions, the 2025-26 school year marked a decline in ELL <br /> headcount by 15,513 students from the previous year, representing the largest single-year decline in the last decade. <br /> This decline in ELL could be an impact of the recent changes in federal immigration policy. However, the nature and <br /> extent of the impact would be clearer as more data is made available. <br /> C A R O L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 5 <br /> D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br /> a <br />