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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 47 <br /> We then convert occupied units into student yield by grade band, multiplying the year-specific occupied units by <br /> tract-level age-group occupancy rates for 5-10 year olds (elementary), 11-13 year olds (middle), and 14-17 year olds <br /> (high). Those annual student yields are assigned to schools based on attendance boundaries and summed across <br /> projects to produce school- and year-level additions. Finally, because the GPR baseline model already captures some <br /> development-driven enrollment implicitly, we remove the portion already reflected in the baseline to avoid double <br /> counting, and add the net development yield to the baseline to produce the development-adjusted ADM forecast. <br /> Baseline Forecast <br /> Similar to the methodology applied to CHCCS, we first developed a forecast for the OCS K-12 ADM membership using <br /> a baseline model based on grade progression ratios (GPRs). This baseline forecast projects a continuous decline over <br /> the coming decade. Starting from 7,513 students in 2015-16, ADM is expected to fall to 6,716 by 2025-26, and then <br /> further to 6,449 by 2030-31, ultimately reaching 6,099 by the end of the forecast period in 2035-36. This trajectory <br /> indicates a loss of over 1,400 students across the entire period or 617 students between 2025-26 and 2035-36). <br /> OCS: K-12 ADM Baseline Forecast <br /> 7,513 <br /> 716 <br /> 6,449 <br /> 4,000 <br /> 2,000 <br /> 0 <br /> 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 <br /> Source.OCS,Demographic AnaVics Advisors(DAA)Forecast <br /> At the grade level, the baseline forecast projects a consistent decline in ADM across all levels between 2025-26 through <br /> 2035-36, with the most pronounced reductions in high schools. Elementary School ADM, starting at 2,832 students in <br /> 2025-26, is forecasted to decrease by 127 students to 2,705 by 2030-31, and further to 2,651 by 2035-36, a total 10- <br /> year decline of 181 students. Middle School ADM, at 1,596 students in 2025-26, is projected to decline to 1,401 by <br /> 2035-36, a total loss of 195 students. High Schools, with 2,288 students in 2025-26, show the largest overall projected <br /> decrease, dropping by 241 students to 2,047 by 2035-36. <br /> C A R 0 L I N A ��T �T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 44 <br /> D E M O G R _ P H Y lJl �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br /> a <br />