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Agenda 04-07-2026; 7-a - Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast
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Agenda 04-07-2026; 7-a - Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast
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BOCC
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4/7/2026
Meeting Type
Business
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Agenda
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7-a
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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 38 <br /> Percent Capacity by School Level 2025-2026 through 2035-2036 <br /> 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- 2032- 2033- 2034- 2035- <br /> Level 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 <br /> Elementary <br /> 76% 75% 75% <br /> Schools <br /> Middle Schools 84% 81% 81% 77% 78% 78% 78% 78% <br /> High Schools 90' 84% 83% 81% <br /> Source:CHCCS;NC DPI;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast <br /> The heatmap above presents the projected capacity utilization for each school level across the district, spanning the <br /> forecast period from the 2025-26 school year through 2035-36. In the current school year (2025-26), only High <br /> Schools are projected to be operating at over 95% capacity which declines significantly, dropping to approximately <br /> 80% by the end of the forecast period in 2035-36. Elementary Schools district-wide are currently only 75% utilized but <br /> this is projected to decline further to 74% from 2028-29 onwards, remaining at this level till the end of the forecast <br /> period. Middle Schools are currently at 88% capacity, but this is expected to decline drastically by about 10 <br /> percentage points, reaching 78% capacity utilization in 2032-33 and remaining at this level for the rest of the forecast <br /> period. <br /> Overall, the projections indicate a consistent trend of decreasing capacity utilization across all school levels over the <br /> next decade. However, considerable variability in capacity utilization exists among individual schools within the <br /> elementary, middle, and high school groups. The table below provides a more granular view of these individual <br /> school-level utilization patterns. <br /> CAR 0 L I N A II T CAROLINA Demographic 35 <br /> DEMOGR PHY lJJNC <br /> POPULATION CENTER � Analytics Advisors <br />
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