Agenda 04-07-2026; 7-a - Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast

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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 20 2. We need to understand the likelihood a development actually gets built. This depends on the phase of development, and is based on local knowledge and our experience throughout the country doing this work. Once units are under construction we assume a 100% likelihood of delivery of units. 3. Next, we determine when units will be delivered, and over how many years. 4. Next, we know that not all units are occupied at all times, so we apply occupancy rates to each unit. 5. Next, we apply yield by age groups to each of the units to match elementary, middle, and high school ages. These yields are based on our understanding of the type of units being built and historical patterns of yield from decennial census and local development data. 6. Finally, we apply market share adjustments to these net new students, as we know not all of them will end up in public schools. Each of these steps requires both data and judgement. We work to actually go out to each development and understand what is happening on the ground (see the picture below as an examples), and also go through marketing materials and county or municipal documents to understand the likely target demographics and types of units being built— beyond just single-family, multi-family, and the like. An Example of Ground Truthing Development in Chapel Hill k —�" sue. = -k .a _..'�• r Source: Carolina Demography Once we have gone through each of these steps, we are able to model the impact of these developments in terms of net new students that should be added to the baseline forecast for each year. In the next section, we turn to the specific results for both Chapel Hill - Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS) and Orange County Schools (OCS) CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 17 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors