Agenda 04-07-2026; 7-a - Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast

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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 54 5-Yr and 10-Yr Student Yield from Developments by Schools: 2030-31 and 2035-36 School Name 2031 2036 A L Stanback Middle 6 7 Cedar Ridge High 18 19 Central Elementary 4 4 Efland Cheeks Elementary 15 15 Grady Brown Elementary 0 0 Gravelly Hill Middle 8 8 Hillsborough Elementary 0 0 New Hope Elementary 8 9 Orange High 7 7 Orange Middle 0 0 Partnership Academy 0 0 Pathways Elementary 0 0 River Park Elementary 1 1 Total 67 71 Source:Demographic Analytics Advisors (DAA) Calculations;Orange County, Mebane and Hillsborough Municipalities Conclusion Even after incorporating expected student yield from under-construction and proposed developments, the baseline and development-adjusted forecasts for CHCCS and OCS project a gradual, sustained decline in ADM over the 2025-26 through 2035-36 period. Most of the decline is concentrated in the next five years, and we attribute it primarily to two factors: First, a shrinking demographic dividend — fewer births and the smaller cohorts born around and after the COVID years — means fewer children entering kindergarten and smaller cohorts advancing through the system. This, in addition to the anticipated decline in international migration at the county level, further slows down population growth overall, particularly among school-age children. Second, ongoing shifts in education market-share options will reduce public school enrollment. Increases in charter school capacity and expansion of private-school options driven by the implementation of the private school voucher law (which triples the budget of the Opportunity Scholarship Program removes income and prior public school enrollment restrictions) are expected to draw students away from CHCCS and OCS. Together, these forces disproportionately CAR 0 L I N A II T CAROLINA Demographic 51 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors