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Agenda 04-07-2026; 7-a - Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast
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Agenda 04-07-2026; 7-a - Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast
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4/7/2026
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Agenda
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7-a
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Agenda for April 7, 2026 BOCC Meeting
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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 52 <br /> OCS ADM: 2025-26 Through 2035-36 by School, Colored by Year-Over-Year%Change <br /> School 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 <br /> Central Elementary 230 177 175 174 173 172 <br /> Efland Cheeks Elementary 484 467 456 437 427 408 409 406 404 402 401 <br /> Grady Brown Elementary 390 383 383 379 373 376 376 373 372 369 368 <br /> Hillsborough Elementary 433 434 440 442 442 445 445 442 439 437 435 <br /> New Hope Elementary 514 539 543 552 576 601 605 601 598 595 592 <br /> Pathways Elementary 359 354 355 360 358 355 351 350 <br /> River Park Elementary 434 390 371 371 367 365 363 362 <br /> A L Stanback Middle 631 631 629 604 569 571 569 566 570 563 <br /> Gravelly Hill Middle 452 430 417 413 409 393 388 386 391 387 <br /> Orange Middle 499 477 490 481 456 452 451 458 451 <br /> Cedar Ridge High 1,172 1,178 1,186 1,196 1,189 1,182 1,163 1,132 1,114 1,085 1,067 <br /> Orange High 1,028 1,054 1,045 1,047 1,045 1,024 997 979 955 941 <br /> Partnership Academy 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 <br /> Total 6,722 6,672 6,649 6,575 6,529 6,477 6,390 6,300 6,243 6,187 6,129 <br /> Source:Month 2 ADM Principal's Monthly Report;NC DPI and Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast <br /> ADM across OCS schools are projected to decline despite taking into consideration the student yields from new <br /> developments around Hillsborough, Mebane, and parts of the County. In the table below, we have shown the student <br /> yield coming from development projects that impact Efland Cheeks Elementary. This school is projected to gain about <br /> 16 students throughout the forecast period from the various developments, with Oakwood Division contributing 6 <br /> students and Tupelo North and Meadowstone contributing 3 students each. Oak Grove Trails is already built and <br /> occupied, so its students are reflected in current ADM and no additional yield is counted to avoid double-counting. <br /> Detailed project-level development impacts for elementary, middle, and high schools are provided in Appendix C. <br /> CAR 0 L I N A UP TJNC CAROLINA _ Demographic 49 <br /> DEMOGR PHY � lPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br /> a <br />
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