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Agenda 04-07-2026; 7-a - Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast
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Agenda 04-07-2026; 7-a - Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast
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4/2/2026 3:05:41 PM
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4/7/2026
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Business
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Agenda
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7-a
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Agenda for April 7, 2026 BOCC Meeting
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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 51 <br /> OCS: District High School ADM: 2015-16 to 2035-36 <br /> 4,000 <br /> 3,000 <br /> 2,471 <br /> 288 2,266 <br /> -+ 047 <br /> 2,000 <br /> 1,000 <br /> 0 <br /> 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 <br /> Source:Principal's Monthly Report(PMR 2)2016-2026,Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast <br /> Although overall district ADM is declining, the magnitude of that decline varies by school. The table below shows ADM <br /> for selected years and the percent change from the current 2025-26 school year through 2035-36. <br /> The school-level heatmap (below) indicates that ADM declines are uneven across the district. A few schools—for <br /> example, New Hope Elementary and Pathways Elementary— show periods of growth or in the early forecast years, <br /> but some elementary and high schools exhibit persistent declines (for example, Central Elementary, River Park <br /> Elementary, and Orange High). None of the Elementary or High schools are projected to experience ADM increases <br /> after 2031-32. Some middle schools show short-term increases (e.g., A L Stanback), but overall middle-level ADM is <br /> also projected to trend downward by the end of the forecast period. <br /> CAR 0 L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 48 <br /> D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br /> a <br />
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