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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 5 <br /> Introduction <br /> In November 2025, the Orange County Government's Budget Division invited our team to submit a proposal to develop <br /> a 10-year student membership forecast for Orange County Schools (OCS) and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools <br /> (CHCCS). The Budget Division and local district leadership emphasized two priorities in the selection process: deep <br /> familiarity with the local context and a comprehensive forecasting methodology that accounts for all components of <br /> student membership change. <br /> Following the submission of our proposal, we presented our approach to a staff working group and subsequently to the <br /> full Orange County Board of Commissioners. Upon selection, we entered into a formal partnership with Orange County, <br /> OCS, and CHCCS to develop the 2025-2026 10-Year Student Membership Forecast. This report presents the results <br /> of that forecast. <br /> Statewide Changes in Population, Enrollment, and Average Daily Membership (ADM) <br /> To understand the factors affecting ADM change at the local district level, it is helpful to discuss trends that are <br /> happening at the state level. These trends in population change, enrollment, and ADM change will help us to <br /> contextualize what is happening in CHCCS and OCS within the broader context of the state. Below, we begin by <br /> looking at population trends, and then move into a narrower discussion of what is happening with the school-aged <br /> population, enrollment, and ADM. <br /> Population Changes <br /> The state of North Carolina continues to be one of the fastest growing states in the country. However, like the rest of <br /> the country, the state's population is aging. Below is a chart of estimated and forecasted population growth (2010 <br /> 2060) from the NC Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM). The state has grown from almost 9.6 million in <br /> 2010 to 11.2 million today (an increase of 16% over 15 years). With a forecast of 12.2 million in 2035, another <br /> increase of 9.0% over 10 years. <br /> C A R O L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 2 <br /> DEMOGR PHY JNC <br /> POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br />