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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 49
<br /> By grade level, the development-adjusted forecasts show declines across all segments between the current 2025-26
<br /> baseline and 2035-36, with high schools projected to lose the most students. Elementary ADM falls from about 2,838 in
<br /> 2025-26 to 2,681 in 2035-36, a decline of 157 fewer students. Middle school ADM declines from roughly 1,596 to 1,401
<br /> during this period. High school ADM drops from about 2,288 to 2,047 between 2025-26 and 2035-36 (or 241 fewer
<br /> students).
<br /> OCS Development Adjusted ADM Forecasts by Level:2015-16 to 2025-26
<br /> Level 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
<br /> Elementary Schools 3,309 3,269 3,178 3,176 3,219 3,040 2,927 3,044 3,034 2,975 2,838 2,821 2,811 2,772 2,748 2,733 2,742 2,723 2,707 2,690 2,681
<br /> Middle Schools 1,733 1,722 1,722 1,773 1,757 1,653 1,593 1,594 1,568 1,577 1,596 1,606 1,560 1,523 1,508 1,479 1,421 1,409 1,403 1,419 1,401
<br /> High School 2,471 2,444 2,439 2,351 2,389 2,338 2,394 2,470 2,376 2,356 2,288 2,245 2,279 2,280 2,274 2,266 2,226 2,168 2,132 2,078 2,047
<br /> Total 7,513 7,435 7,339 7,300 7,365 7,031 6,914 7,108 6,978 6,908 6,722 6,672 6,649 6,575 6,529 6,477 6,390 6,300 6,243 6,187 6,129
<br /> Source:OCS;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast
<br /> Elementary School ADM trend shows a steady decline from 3,309 in 2015-16 to 2,838 in 2025-26, with projections
<br /> continuing downward to about 2,681 by 2035-36. A small uptick around 2021-22 through 2023-24 school years is visible
<br /> but that does not offset the overall loss in ADM in the coming years despite accounting for expected student yield from
<br /> new development.
<br /> OCS: District Elementary School ADM: 2015-16 to 2035-36
<br /> a,000
<br /> 3,309
<br /> 3,000 2,838
<br /> 0_. .0. r r 3,7 3 2,681
<br /> 2,000
<br /> 1,000
<br /> 0
<br /> 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
<br /> Source,Principal's Monthly Report(PMR 2)2016-2026:Demographic Analyfics Advisors(DAA)Forecast
<br /> Middle school ADM shows a gradual but steady decline over the forecast period. After an uptick around 2019-20,
<br /> enrollment falls to about 1,596 in 2025-26 and is projected to decline further to roughly 1,401 by 2035-36. However,
<br /> the extent of decline is projected to be more moderate than at the elementary and high school levels.
<br /> C A R O L I N A UP TJNC CAROLINA _ Demographic 46
<br /> DEMOGR _ PHYlPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors
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