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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 48
<br /> OCS ADM Baseline Forecast by Level:2015-16 to 2035-36
<br /> Level 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
<br /> Elementary Schools 3,309 3,269 3,178 3,176 3,219 3,040 2,927 3,044 3,034 2,975 2,832 2,808 2,795 2,751 2,722 2,705 2,712 2,693 2,677 2,660 2,651
<br /> High School 2,471 2,444 2,439 2,351 2,389 2,338 2,394 2,470 2,376 2,356 2,288 2,245 2,279 2,280 2,274 2,266 2,226 2,168 2,132 2,078 2,047
<br /> Middle Schools 1,733 1,722 1,722 1,773 1,757 1,653 1,593 1,594 1,568 1,577 1,596 1,606 1,560 1,523 1,508 1,479 1,421 1,409 1,403 1,419 1,401
<br /> Total 7,513 7,435 7,339 7,300 7,365 7,031 6,914 7,108 6,978 6,908 6,716 6,659 6,634 6,554 6,504 6,449 6,360 6,270 6,213 6,157 6,099
<br /> Source:OCS;Demographic Antics Advisors(DAA)Forecast
<br /> In the section below, we analyze the ADM forecasts developed after incorporating development information into our
<br /> baseline forecasts and adjusting for market share.
<br /> Forecast with Development Yield
<br /> Similar to the baseline model, the development-adjusted forecast for OCS K-12 ADM projects a continuous decline
<br /> through the forecast period, but the drop is slightly smaller after accounting for student yield from new developments.
<br /> The baseline model forecasts a loss of 617 ADM between the current year and the end of the forecast, while the
<br /> development-adjusted forecast reduces that loss to 593 students. Historically, OCS has already observed a decline in
<br /> ADM between 2015-16 and 2025-26 of about 791 students.
<br /> OCS: K-12 ADM Development Adjusted Forecast
<br /> 7,513
<br /> 4,477
<br /> 722
<br /> 6,000 Z129
<br /> 4,000
<br /> 2,000
<br /> 0
<br /> 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
<br /> Source:OCS;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast
<br /> CAR 0 L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 45
<br /> D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors
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