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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 46 <br /> Next, we assign a probability that units will be built and occupied within the forecast period based on project status and <br /> ground survey conducted by our staff. Projects that are approved or under construction but appear essentially complete <br /> on the side (for example, units built but siding or finishing on-going) are assigned a 95-100% probability of completion. <br /> Other under-construction projects are assigned an 85% probability. Approved projects receive a 60% probability, <br /> preliminary-plan approvals receive 40%, and projects under review are assigned 20%. These probabilities are <br /> assumptions about the share of units likely to be built and occupied during the forecast window and are adjusted when <br /> ground surveys or permitting updates indicate a different status. For example, where a ground survey found some units <br /> already completed and partially occupied in 2025, we removed those units from the forecast because their students are <br /> expected to be captured in the 2025-26 ADM baseline. <br /> After estimating the probability that units will be built during our forecast duration, we apply an occupancy rate to account <br /> for vacancy, short-term rentals, and other non-occupancy factors. We use 2020 Census tract—level occupancy rates to <br /> convert probable completed units into expected occupied units. Since developments do not reach full occupancy <br /> immediately, we then apply an occupancy timeline (ramp-up) based on each project's estimated start-of-occupancy year <br /> and its construction status; the development table above lists each project's estimated occupancy start year, and the <br /> occupancy ramp schedule is shown in the table below. <br /> Occupancy Timeline for Development Projects in OCS district <br /> Year Occupancy Start:2025 Occupancy Start: 2026 Occupancy Start: 2027 Occupancy Start:2028 Occupancy Start: 2029 <br /> 2026 0% 60% 0% 0% 0% <br /> 2027 100% 100% 30% 0% 0% <br /> 2028 100% 100% 50% 30% 0% <br /> 2029 100% 100% 80% 50% 30% <br /> 2030 100% 100% 100% 80% 50% <br /> 2031 100% 100% 100% 100% 80% <br /> 2032 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% <br /> 2033 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% <br /> 2034 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% <br /> 2035 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% <br /> 2036 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% <br /> Source:Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA) Calculations;Orange County,'Mebane and Hillsborough Municipalities <br /> Next, for each development project we estimate how many units will be occupied in each forecast year by applying the <br /> occupancy timeline (percent occupied by year) to the project's total units. For example, a 50-unit project with 30% <br /> occupancy in its first year and 50% in the second year yields roughly 15 occupied units in year one and 25 in year two. <br /> CAR 0 L I N A II T CAROLINA � Demographic 43 <br /> DEMOGR PHY lJJNC <br /> POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br />