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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 43 <br /> OCS: K-12 ADM Historical Trend <br /> 7,513 7,365 <br /> 6 722 <br /> 6,000 <br /> 4,000 <br /> 2,000 <br /> 0 <br /> 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 <br /> Source:OCS;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast <br /> Next, we analyze market share trends within the OCS district to determine whether the decline in ADM membership is <br /> driven by a shift toward non-public options or primarily reflects a shrinking school-age population. <br /> Market Share Trends <br /> Analysis of market share distribution within the OCS district over the last four school years shows that market share has <br /> remained relatively stable over the past four school years, with OCS consistently capturing the majority of students (65% <br /> -67%). However, there has been a gradual shift among non-public options. While Home School enrollment has declined <br /> from 15% in 2021-22 to 10% in 2024-25, Charter Schools have gradually increased their share from 9% to 11% over <br /> the same period. This trend is similar to market share trends in the CHCCS district. Private School enrollment has held <br /> steady at approximately 11-12%. Overall, nearly one-third of the district's school-age population continues to opt for <br /> alternatives to traditional public education. <br /> CAR 0 L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 40 <br /> D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br /> a <br />