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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 42 <br /> Migration <br /> The English Language Learner (ELL) headcount in the OCS district declined in the current school year falling to 976 <br /> from 1,043 in the previous school year. This marks the first year-over-year decline since 2015-16, following a decade- <br /> high enrollment of 1,043 just one year prior. Since Orange County is not insulated from federal immigration policies <br /> that influence in-migration, these shifts directly impact district enrollment and a declining ELL headcount could be <br /> interpreted as a proxy for that. However, the extent of the impact of changing immigration policy on enrollment will be <br /> clearer in the coming school year as more recent data becomes available. <br /> Headcount of English Language Learners:2016-17 through 2025-26 <br /> 1,043 <br /> 975 976 <br /> 907 <br /> 771 769 802 <br /> 722 <br /> 671 <br /> 592 <br /> 11 <br /> 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 <br /> Data Source-Headcount of Limited English Proficient Students, <br /> Report to the North Carolina General Assembly,NC DPI <br /> Current ADM Trends <br /> The historical trend for K-12 Average Daily Membership (ADM) in Orange County Schools reveals a steady, long-term <br /> decline over the past decade. In the 2015-16 school year, OCS student membership was reported at 7,513 students. <br /> This number dipped to 7,365 in 2020 before continuing a downward trajectory to 6,722 in the current school year (2025- <br /> 26). This represents a total loss of nearly 800 students over the ten-year period. The decline has accelerated in the five <br /> years since the pandemic, suggesting a structural shift in student membership rather than a temporary dip. <br /> C A R 0 L I N A �I lJJNCT CAROLINA Demographic 39 <br /> DEMOGR _ PHY POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br />