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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 41 <br /> exert downward pressure on future elementary enrollment. Kindergarten to births ratio is considered an indicator of not <br /> just enrollment but migration patterns. <br /> OCS Births: Actual and Projections (2016-2036) <br /> 1,000 <br /> 750 <br /> y 610�� 598 580 <br /> U) 500 505 <br /> m <br /> 250 <br /> 0 <br /> 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 <br /> Year <br /> Source:NC Birth Records,NC State Center for Health Statistics,Demographic Analystics Advisors(DAA)Forecast <br /> The OCS Kindergarten-to-Birth Ratio chart reveals significant fluctuations, with ratios initially exceeding 1.0 (indicating <br /> more kindergarteners than local births five years prior) but trending downward in recent years. Specifically, the ratio <br /> peaked at 1.20 in 2016 and remained above 1.0 through 2020. However, after 2020, the ratio drops considerably, falling <br /> to 0.80 in 2025. This sharp post-2020 decline signals a weakening in-migration pattern or increased out-migration or <br /> shifting market share trends. <br /> OCS:Kindergarten-to-Birth Ratio <br /> 800 <br /> 600 <br /> 1.13 1.04 <br /> 1.2 1.13 .99 .91 W.88 89 <br /> � .79 •8 .68 <br /> 400 <br /> 200 <br /> 0 <br /> 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 <br /> 0 Babies born 5 years earlier Kindergarten <br /> Source:Principal's Monthly Report(PMR 2)2016-2025,NC Birth Records,NC State Center for Health Statistics <br /> C A R O L I N A �I T CAROLINA ADemographic 38 <br /> DEMOGR _ PHY lJJNC <br /> POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br />