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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 40 <br /> utilization declines and reaches about 82 percent by 2035-36, while other high schools move into and out of the red <br /> over the forecast as enrollment shifts. <br /> Orange County Schools (OCS) <br /> Like Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools, Orange County Schools is experiencing notable shifts in student membership. <br /> While the magnitude of decline has been somewhat less pronounced than that of CHCCS, understanding the <br /> components driving membership change —and how those dynamics are likely to evolve — positions OCS leadership <br /> to plan strategically and confidently for the next five to ten years. This forecast provides the data foundation to support <br /> that work. <br /> Population Estimates and Births for OCS <br /> SAIPE data of 5-17 year olds in Orange County School district shows a stable school-age population over the past <br /> decade. The numbers have consistently hovered just below 9,500 students from 2014 through 2024, with only minor <br /> fluctuations. While there was a slight increase around 2020-2021, school-aged residents within the OCS district have <br /> remained largely constant. This stability in the resident school-age population implies that any significant changes in <br /> OCS enrollments are more likely attributable to factors like shifts in birth rates, migration patterns, or changes in <br /> educational market share rather than a shrinking demographic base. <br /> Population between 5-17 years for OCS district <br /> 15,000 <br /> to <br /> L <br /> 10,000 <br /> LO <br /> C <br /> O <br /> n. <br /> 5,000 <br /> O <br /> a <br /> 0 <br /> 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 <br /> Year <br /> Source:US Census Bureau,Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates(SAIPE),2015-25 <br /> Births <br /> From an estimated 622 annual births in 2022, births in the rest of OCS district (Orange County births excluding Chapel <br /> Hill and Carrboro births) are projected to fall to about 598 by 2030 (a roughly 4% decline) and to about 580 by 2036 <br /> (about a 6% decline from 2024). These declines in births result in smaller kindergarten cohorts five years later and will <br /> C A R O L I N A �I T CAROLINA _ Demographic 37 <br /> DEMOGR PHY lJJNC <br /> POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br />