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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 4 <br /> Table of Contents <br /> Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................................2 <br /> Statewide Changes in Population, Enrollment, and Average Daily Membership (ADM) .........................................2 <br /> PopulationChanges.......................................................................................................................................................................2 <br /> English Language Learners (ELLs) ............................................................................................................................5 <br /> Enrollmentand ADM......................................................................................................................................................................6 <br /> Birthsand Birth to Kindergarten Ratios..........................................................................................................................................8 <br /> MarketShare Trends .....................................................................................................................................................................9 <br /> Orange County Changes in Population, Enrollment, and ADM ...............................................................................10 <br /> PopulationChanges.....................................................................................................................................................................10 <br /> Enrollmentand ADM....................................................................................................................................................................13 <br /> Enrollmentversus ADM...............................................................................................................................................14 <br /> Howwe Forecast..........................................................................................................................................................15 <br /> ForecastingDevelopment............................................................................................................................................................16 <br /> Chapel Hill - Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS)............................................................................................................17 <br /> Population Estimates and Births for CHCCS...............................................................................................................................18 <br /> CurrentADM Trends....................................................................................................................................................................20 <br /> MarketShare Trends ...................................................................................................................................................................22 <br /> Developments ..............................................................................................................................................................................23 <br /> BaselineForecast ........................................................................................................................................................................27 <br /> Forecastwith Development Yield.................................................................................................................................................29 <br /> Forecast with Facilities Utilization................................................................................................................................................33 <br /> OrangeCounty Schools (OCS)....................................................................................................................................36 <br /> Population Estimates and Births for OCS....................................................................................................................................36 <br /> CurrentADM Trends....................................................................................................................................................................38 <br /> MarketShare Trends ...................................................................................................................................................................39 <br /> Developments ..............................................................................................................................................................................40 <br /> BaselineForecast ........................................................................................................................................................................43 <br /> Forecast with Development Yield.................................................................................................................................................44 <br /> Conclusion....................................................................................................................................................................49 <br /> AppendixA....................................................................................................................................................................51 <br /> DataSources................................................................................................................................................................................51 <br /> AppendixB....................................................................................................................................................................53 <br /> Development Impact on CHCCS Schools: Elementary Schools.................................................................................................53 <br /> Development Impact on CHCCS Schools: Middle Schools.........................................................................................................57 <br /> Development Impact on CHCCS Schools: High Schools............................................................................................................61 <br /> AppendixC....................................................................................................................................................................63 <br /> Development Impact on OCS Schools: Elementary Schools......................................................................................................63 <br /> Development Impact on OCS Schools: Middle Schools..............................................................................................................65 <br /> Development Impact on OCS Schools: High Schools.................................................................................................................66 <br /> C A R O L I N A cAROLINA <br /> IT1 T WC Demographic 1 <br /> DEMOGR = HY tJPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br />