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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 39 <br /> Percent Capacity by School:2025-2026 through 2035-2036 <br /> 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- 2032- 2033- 2034- 2035- <br /> School Name 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 <br /> Carrboro Elementary 83% 80% 79% 77% 76% 76% 76% 75% 75% <br /> Ephesus Elementary 79% 90' <br /> Estes Hills Elementary 0% 75% 77% 77% 78% 78% 78% <br /> FPG Elementary <br /> Glenwood Elementary 102% 102% 102% 102% 101% 101% <br /> McDougle Elementary •0' '0' •0' <br /> Morris Grove <br /> Elementary <br /> Northside Elementary <br /> Rashkis Elementary 0'. <br /> Scroggs Elementary .0' <br /> Seawell Elementary 81% 79% 76% ® 76% 75% 76% 76% 76% 76% 76% <br /> Culbreth Middle ® 76% 76% 77% 0•. 0 <br /> McDougle Middle 84% 83% 82% 78% 79% 78% 78% 78% <br /> Phillips Middle 82% 80% 81% 81% 78% 79% 79% 79% 79% <br /> Smith Middle <br /> Carrboro High 108% 84% 82% <br /> Chapel Hill High 82% <br /> East Chapel Hill High 90'. 82% 81% 80% 79% <br /> Phoenix Academy <br /> High <br /> Source:CHCCS;NC DPI;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast <br /> The heatmap shows that in the current school year five schools exceed 95 percent of reported capacity utilization but <br /> by 2029-30 only three schools remain in the red threshold at over 95 percent occupancy: Frank Porter Graham <br /> Elementary, Glenwood Elementary, and Ephesus Elementary, driven largely by new students from recent <br /> developments. Northside Elementary, Rashkis Elementary, and Scroggs Elementary, which are well below capacity <br /> and fall under 70 percent utilization, declining further to about 51 percent, 45 percent, and 56 percent respectively by <br /> the end of the forecast period. At the middle school level, no schools are in the red in the current year but Smith <br /> Middle jumps above 95 percent in the next year and then declines to roughly 87 percent by 2035-36. McDougle <br /> Middle begins above 95 percent this year and then falls steadily to about 78 percent by 2035-36. High schools show a <br /> similar pattern: Carrboro High and Chapel Hill High remain more than 95 percent utilized through 2028-29, then their <br /> CAR 0 L I N A II T CAROLINA � Demographic 36 <br /> DEMOGR PHY lJJNC <br /> POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br />