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Agenda 04-07-2026; 7-a - Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast
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Agenda 04-07-2026; 7-a - Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast
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4/2/2026 3:05:41 PM
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BOCC
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4/7/2026
Meeting Type
Business
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Agenda
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7-a
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Agenda for April 7, 2026 BOCC Meeting
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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 37 <br /> Development Impact: Ephesus Elementary <br /> Development Total Units Units Already Completed First Year Occupancy Total Student Add <br /> Weaver's Grove-1 117 50 2027 12 <br /> Park Apartments Phase 11 259 259 2027 10 <br /> Aura Blue Hill 313 0 2027 8 <br /> Gateway-1 314 0 2028 6 <br /> Gateway-2 72 0 2029 4 <br /> Tarheel Lodging Phase 11 283 0 2029 4 <br /> Weaver's Grove-2 35 0 2029 2 <br /> The Reserve at Blue Hill 212 0 2030 1 <br /> Residence Inn Hotel and Summit Place Townhomes 52 0 2028 1 <br /> Millennium Chapel Hill/University Inn 274 274 2027 0 <br /> Total 1,931 583 — 49 <br /> Source:Data from Demographic Analytics Advisors,Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and municipalities. <br /> Forecast with Facilities Utilization <br /> In the maps below we see the yearly growth by schools from a capacity utilization perspective. The optimal <br /> percentage of capacity depends on the growth profile of the district. The heatmaps presented below allow us to <br /> indicate if a school might be reaching capacity issues or remain underutilized using the following stop-light warning <br /> system: <br /> • Orange= Schools above 100% capacity <br /> • Green Schools between 85%-100% capacity <br /> • Yellow = Schools with 75-85% capacity <br /> • Red = Schools below 75% capacity <br /> CAR 0 L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 34 <br /> D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br /> a <br />
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