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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 36
<br /> ADM: 2025-26 Through 2035-36 by School, Colored by Year-Over-Year%Change
<br /> School 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
<br /> Carrboro Elementary 462 444 430 413 409 398 395 395 392 390 388
<br /> Ephesus Elementary 343 387 394 405 417 421 420 422 422 423
<br /> Estes Hills Elementary 324 362 376 375 389 397 398 400 401 403
<br /> FPG Elementary 499 491 505 503 499 498 496 495 492 489 487
<br /> Glenwood Elementary 394 387 385 384 396 =
<br /> 421 420 419 418 418
<br /> McDougle Elementary 469 487 495 491 510 511 505 501 499 496 495
<br /> Morris Grove Elementary 371 364 357 346 362 356 359 362 366 368 371
<br /> Northside Elementary 313 306 298 291 290 289 289 288 289
<br /> Rashkis Elementary 321 253 253 254 255 256
<br /> Scroggs Elementary 366 =
<br /> 333 =
<br /> 311 307 309 312 315 314 314
<br /> Seawell Elementary 354 344 335 343 336 341 344 343 341 340
<br /> Culbreth Middle 586 587 596 =
<br /> 548 531 540 538 536 534
<br /> McDougle Middle 668 652 =
<br /> 606 603 =
<br /> 577 571 572 568
<br /> Phillips Middle 615 619 =
<br /> 568 570 573 550 555 555 560 558
<br /> Smith Middle 695 678 694 =
<br /> 647 626 638 638 639 639
<br /> Carrboro High 862 =
<br /> 775 758 733 738 726 694 682 674 656
<br /> Chapel Hill High 1,594 1,607 1,569 1,571 1,525 1,480 1,483 1,419 1,396 1,377 1,335
<br /> East Chapel Hill High 1,404 1,370 1,341 1,338 1,301 1,293 1,294 1,244 1,228 1,218 1,190
<br /> Phoenix Academy High 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
<br /> Total 10,758 10,619 10,438 10,326 10,161 10,084 9,997 9,882 9,823 9,783 9,688
<br /> Month 2 ADM Principal's Monthly Report;OCS;NC DPI;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast
<br /> Decline5%or Greater
<br /> 2.5%-4.99%Decline 0%-2.49%Decline 0%-2.49%Growth 2.5%-4.99%Growth 5%or Greater
<br /> Growth
<br /> As the table above shows, most schools decline in the next school year, but the decline is the sharpest in Rashkis
<br /> Elementary, Seawell Elementary, Northside Elementary, Culbreth Middle, and Smith Middle. All three high schools
<br /> (Carrboro High, Chapel Hill High, and East Chapel Hill High)are on a declining trajectory after 2031-32. As stated above,
<br /> these declines are despite taking into consideration the student yields from new developments around Chapel-Hill and
<br /> Carrboro area. In the table below, we have shown the student yield coming from development projects that impact
<br /> Ephesus Elementary. This school is projected to gain about 49 students throughout the forecast period from the various
<br /> developments, with Weaver's Grove-1 contributing 12 students and Park Apartments Phase I adding 10 students.
<br /> Detailed tables on development impact of various projects by Elementary, Middle, and High Schools is provided in
<br /> Appendix B.
<br /> CAR 0 L I N A UP TJNC CAROLINA _ Demographic 33
<br /> DEMOGR PHY � lPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors
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