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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 33
<br /> Forecast with Development Yield
<br /> In comparison to the baseline model, when adjusted for development yield we forecast ADM to decline over the
<br /> forecast period from 10,758 students in the current school year to 9,688 by the end of the forecast period (2035-36).
<br /> This translates to a decline of 1,070 students between the forecast period which is 566 fewer than the decline of 1,637
<br /> students projected by the baseline mode. In the next school year, development adjusted ADM expected to fall to
<br /> 10,619 students. As we can see from the figure below, ADM started declining since COVID and will continue to
<br /> decline throughout the forecast period.
<br /> CHCCS: K-12 ADM Development Adjusted Forecast
<br /> 12,500 12.004
<br /> 758
<br /> 10,000 10�' 084
<br /> 7,500
<br /> 5,000
<br /> 2,500
<br /> 0
<br /> 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
<br /> Source:CHCCS;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast
<br /> The table below gives an overview of grade level projections for the next 10 years.
<br /> CHCCS Development Adjusted ADM Forecasts by Level:2015-16 to 2025-26
<br /> Level 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
<br /> Elementary 5,501 5,555 5,508 5,472 5,349 4,926 4,716 4,641 4,552 4,510 4,294 4,255 4,232 4,161 4,191 4,176 4,188 4,190 4,190 4,181 4,183
<br /> Schools
<br /> Middle
<br /> Schools 2,838 2,833 2,838 2,930 3,032 2,912 2,799 2,788 2,699 2,655 2,579 2,569 2,496 2,472 2,386 2,371 2,280 2,309 2,302 2,308 2,299
<br /> High 3,665 3,738 3,910 3,903 3,922 3,926 3,896 3,923 3,949 3,934 3,885 3,795 3,710 3,693 3,584 3,536 3,529 3,382 3,331 3,294 3,206
<br /> Schools
<br /> Total 12,004 12,126 12,256 12,305 12,303 11,764 11,411 11,352 11,200 11,099 10,758 10,619 10,438 10,326 10,161 10,084 9,997 9,882 9,823 9,783 9,688
<br /> Source:CHCCS;Demographic Ana[ytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast
<br /> CAR 0 L I N A UP TJNC CAROLINA Demographic 30
<br /> DEMOGR PHY � lPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors
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