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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 32
<br /> Our baseline forecast projects a decline in CHCCS student membership over the coming decade. From 10,758 in the
<br /> current school year, Average Daily Membership (ADM) is expected to fall to 9,759 within the next five years, followed
<br /> by a further reduction to 9,122 by the end of the forecast period in 2035-26. This translates to an approximate loss of
<br /> 1,000 students over the initial five-year period, with an additional decline of 637 students projected between 2030-31
<br /> and 2035-26. The forecast anticipates an overall reduction of 1,637 students in CHCCS ADM throughout the entire
<br /> forecast period.
<br /> CHCCS: K-12 ADM Baseline Forecast
<br /> 12,500 12,004
<br /> 758
<br /> 10,000 +
<br /> r -9a59
<br /> ~ .r A122
<br /> 7,500
<br /> 5,000
<br /> 2,500
<br /> 0
<br /> 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
<br /> Source:CHCCS;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast
<br /> The baseline model projects a significant decline in student membership across all grade levels by the end of the
<br /> forecast period (2035-36). Elementary schools are expected to see a reduction of approximately 349 students, middle
<br /> schools a decline of 414 students, and high schools the largest decrease, with about 870 students during our forecast
<br /> period. In the next five years (between the current 2025-26 school year and 2030-31), ADM declines are anticipated to
<br /> be 254 students for elementary schools, 286 students for middle schools, and 459 students for high schools.
<br /> CHCCS ADM Baseline Forecast by Level:2015-16 to 2035-36
<br /> Level 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
<br /> Elementary 5,501 5,555 5,508 5,472 5,349 4,926 4,716 4,641 4,552 4,510 4,294 4,210 4,172 4,077 4,082 4,040 4,025 4,007 3,984 3,959 3,944
<br /> Schools
<br /> Middle Schools 2,838 2,833 2,838 2,930 3,032 2,912 2,799 2,788 2,699 2,655 2,579 2,542 2,462 2,423 2,323 2,293 2,187 2,204 2,185 2,182 2,164
<br /> High Schools 3,665 3,738 3,910 3,903 3,922 3,926 3,896 3,923 3,949 3,934 3,885 3,758 3,661 3,625 3,496 3,426 3,397 3,233 3,164 3,114 3,013
<br /> Total 12,004 12,126 12,256 12,305 12,303 11,764 11,411 11,352 11,200 11,099 10,758 10,510 10,296 10,125 9,901 9,759 9,608 9,443 9,333 9.256 9,122
<br /> Source.CHCCS;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast
<br /> CAR 0 L I N A Il�T JNC CAROLINA A Demographic 29
<br /> DEMOGR PHY POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors
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