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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 30 <br /> projects listed as under construction were nearly complete with only finishing work remaining, while others were still <br /> empty lots. We therefore modified project statuses based on survey inputs. <br /> To estimate student yield from these 42 developments, we first mapped them with Orange County parcel data. In case <br /> a development was spread across multiple parcels, the units from the development were allocated to the parcels based <br /> on the area. Those parcels were then joined to school attendance zones to determine which elementary, middle, and <br /> high schools would receive the new students from these developments. <br /> For developments that are not yet fully constructed, we assign a probability that units will be built and occupied during <br /> the forecast period based on project status and field verification. Projects under construction that appear essentially <br /> complete in the field receive the highest probabilities (typically 95-100%). Other status-based probabilities are applied <br /> as follows: Waiting for Formal Development Application Submittal — 30%; Concept Plan Complete — 40%; Formal <br /> Application Review — 60%; Entitled — 75%; Final Plans Review — 85%. Where site visits indicate units are already <br /> occupied, we remove those units from the forecast so they are not double-counted in the baseline ADM. <br /> After estimating the number of units likely to be completed for each development project, we estimate occupied units <br /> using tract-level occupancy rates from the 2020 Census. These occupancy rates account for the share of housing units <br /> that are typically occupied versus vacant or used for short-term rental in each tract. Since new developments do not <br /> reach full occupancy in a single year, we apply a project-specific occupancy ramp schedule to spread occupied units <br /> across forecast years. A table of this occupancy ramp-up schedule for CHCCS developments is provided below: <br /> Occupancy Timeline for Development Projects in CHCCS district <br /> Complete/Near- Under- Final Plans Formal Application Concept Plan Waiting for Formal Development <br /> Years Completion Contruction Review Entitled Review Complete Application Submittal <br /> 2026 80% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <br /> 2027 100% 30% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <br /> 2028 100% 50% 30% 20% 0% 0% 0% <br /> 2029 100% 80% 50% 50% 30% 0% 0% <br /> 2030 100% 100% 80% 80% 50% 20% 10% <br /> 2031 100% 100% 100% 100% 80% 50% 30% <br /> 2032 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 80% 90% <br /> 2033 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% <br /> 2034 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% <br /> 2035 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% <br /> 2036 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% <br /> Source:CHCCS;Chapel Hill-Carrboro Municipalities <br /> CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 27 <br /> DEMOGR PHY lJJNC <br /> POPULATION CENTER � Analytics Advisors <br />