Agenda 04-07-2026; 7-a - Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast

Browse Search

Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 27 2025-26 data is released from the Division of Non-Public Education at the NC Department of Administration. Additionally, the full impact of the new law will be realized only after the largest increases in funding occur in the 2026- 27 School Year. Historical precedent suggests that private school enrollment shifts are supply-constrained. While early funding increases primarily subsidize the existing private school student population, enrollment growth is contingent upon the capacity of private schools in and around the County. Further, long-term private school enrollment growth will be contingent upon the expansion of private school capacity in and around the county. We are continuing to assess the incoming data on private school enrollment trends to determine if additional changes need to be made in the forecast in the future. Market share by School Type: 2021-22 through 2024-25 100% = = 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 75% 50% 25% 0% 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 Home Schools Private Schools 0 Charter Schools CHCCS Source.CHCCS;NC DPI;NC DOA Developments One of the key drivers of the growth in enrollments in any school district is the new housing developments that are being built throughout the region. Currently, there are 42 non-age restricted residential and mixed-use developments throughout the Chapel-Hill and Carrboro area. These developments have approximately 6,825 units that are either in the pipeline or are being constructed. Out of these 6,825 units, approximately 172 units are age restricted and the rest 6653 are non-age restricted. Below is a table of these 42 developments with their total units as of March 2026. CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 24 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors