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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 22 <br /> Births <br /> Lower birth rates during the COVID years (2020-2021) are expected to shrink incoming kindergarten cohorts beginning <br /> around 2025-26 and produce cascading declines through subsequent grades, because fewer births reduce the <br /> underlying pool of children reaching school age five years later. <br /> CHCCS Births: Actual and Projections (2016-2036) <br /> 1,000 <br /> 750 <br /> 661 <br /> 547 <br /> 5y6 F ♦ 520 <br /> 500 <br /> 250 <br /> 0 <br /> 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 <br /> Source:NC Birth Records;NC State Center for Health Statistics;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)tFrecast <br /> The birth-to-kindergarten ratio (see chart below) measures the number of students entering CHCCS kindergarten <br /> divided by the number of births in Chapel Hill and Carrboro five years earlier. In 2015-16 this ratio was 1.18, which <br /> means the kindergarten cohort was 118 percent of the births from 2010-11. A ratio above 1.0 indicates that additional <br /> children are coming into the district before kindergarten, which can reflect higher net in-migration of families with young <br /> children or greater propensity for resident families to enroll their children in CHCCS. <br /> CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 19 <br /> DEMOGR PHY lJJNC <br /> POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br />