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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 21 <br /> Chapel Hill - Carrboro City Schools (CHCCS) <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools is among a growing number of North Carolina school districts confronting rapid and <br /> significant shifts in student membership. District administration and leadership are actively engaged in strategic <br /> planning efforts to chart the best path forward — balancing the needs of students and families against evolving budget <br /> realities. An accurate, comprehensive student membership forecast is one important tool in that process, providing the <br /> data foundation upon which sound planning and policy decisions can be built. <br /> Population Estimates and Births for CHCCS <br /> The school-age population (5-17 years)within the CHCCS district, as estimated by the Small Area Income and Poverty <br /> Estimates (SAIPE), has shown a decline following the COVID-19 pandemic. This demographic group was estimated at <br /> approximately 12,678 in 2021, and then declined to 12,309 by 2024 (the latest year for which data is available). <br /> Concurrently, the district's enrollment capture rate has also decreased. In 2024, approximately 91% of the 5-17-year- <br /> olds residing in the CHCCS district attend CHCCS schools. This is a reduction from the 94% observed during both the <br /> pandemic and pre-pandemic periods, suggesting either a smaller proportion of eligible resident students are enrolling <br /> in the district or an increase in families with school-age kids migrating to the district during this period. <br /> Population between 5-17 years for CHCCS district <br /> 15,000 <br /> 10,000 <br /> 5,000 <br /> 0 <br /> 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 <br /> Source:US Census Bureau,Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates(SAIPE),2015-25 <br /> CAR 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 18 <br /> DEMOGR PHY JNC <br /> POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br />