Agenda 04-07-2026; 7-a - Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast

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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 18 Enrollment vs. ADM by Year: North Carolina 1,600,000 1,400,000 O U 1,200,000 1,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Year ADM Enrollment Source: NCDPI How we Forecast Our goal is always to create the best membership (ADM) forecast possible given the evidence provided. This means merging several specific things to come to the best conclusion possible. As we always note, this does not mean that the forecast is going to tell us, to the exact student, what ADM is going to be in 2035. However, these are very useful tools if they are contextualized, tested, and used strategically in combination with other diagnostic and planning tools. Further, they become much more useful if they are updated on a regular cadence with new information. We always begin our forecasting process — after collecting information, data, and doing a lot of quality checking — by running a baseline model. This baseline model is always based on a Grade Progression Ratio or Cohort Survival Method (these are just two different names for the same thing). At its simplest, a Grade Progression Ratio (GPR) method simply looks at the number of kids who were in a grade last year and compares them to how many kids are in the next grade this year. So, if we had 100 first graders last year, and 103 second graders this year we would have a second grade GPR of 1.03. In our baseline model, we do this for each grade and for each school in a district, ensuring to build correct progressions between elementary, middle, and high schools. There is one special case when it comes to developing a GPR-based model, and that is Kindergarten. Traditionally, Kindergarten is forecast using a ratio of births 5 years prior to Kindergarteners in the current year. Here, the ratio also CAR 0 L I N A II T CAROLINA � Demographic 15 DEMOGR PHY lJJNC POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors