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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 17 <br /> Orange County:ADM (M2), Enrollment, and 5-17 yrs Population (2017-2025) <br /> 25,000 <br /> 20,000 <br /> 15,000 <br /> 10,000 <br /> 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 <br /> -a- ADM Enrollment -@- Pop:5-17 yrs <br /> Source:NC OSBM Population Projections Vintage 2025,NC DPI <br /> Note:ADM and Enrollment for CHCCS and OCS combined <br /> Enrollment versus ADM <br /> Throughout the rest of this report, we will be focused on forecasting ADM instead of enrollment. It is important that we <br /> revisit and understand the differences between these, and why we forecast ADM. First, let's start with some <br /> definitions: <br /> Enrollment: The number of students enrolled, including those who are in violation of the "I 0-day rule." <br /> Violations: The number of students who currently have at least 10 consecutive unexcused absences. <br /> Average Daily Membership (ADM): The number of membership days for all students not in attendance <br /> violation, divided by the number of days in the school month. This is the number used by NCDPI as the official <br /> budget number. <br /> We use ADM, as our forecast variable because it is the official measure used by NCDPI for budget purposes. NCDPI <br /> also argues that it is the most accurate way to account for the number of students in a school or district. <br /> As we can see below, the difference between enrollment and ADM has varied over time slightly, but they also trend in <br /> the same directions. <br /> CAR 0 L I N A II T CAROLINA Demographic 14 <br /> DEMOGR PHY lJJNC <br /> POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br />