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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 15 <br /> OSBM also reported that between 2020 and 2024, net migration to Orange County increased by 4,168 people, while <br /> natural increase was 881. Although separate international and domestic migration estimates are not available at the <br /> county level, the U.S. Census Bureau's 2025 population estimates show a recent decline in net migration at both the <br /> state and national levels, driven largely by reduced international migration (see figure below). It is reasonable to <br /> expect these statewide migration trends to be reflected in Orange County's future migration patterns as well. <br /> While the overall population is still increasing, the age profile of that growth is changing. When we look at the age <br /> distribution of population growth, we see that much of it occurs in the retirement-age population. The figure below <br /> shows the age distribution of Orange County. According to OSBM projections, as the county grows, it is also getting <br /> older: the median age increases from 38 years in 2025 to 43 years in 2060. This aging pattern is driven in part by in- <br /> migration of older adults and slower growth in younger cohorts. However, the projected increase in median age in <br /> Orange County is smaller than in counties such as Wake, Brunswick, and Mecklenburg, where the median age is <br /> expected to rise by approximately six years between 2025 and 2060. <br /> Orange County Estimates and Forecast: Population by Age <br /> 2010 to 2060 <br /> 150,000 <br /> 100,000 <br /> 50,000 <br /> 0 <br /> 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 <br /> ■ 65&Over ■ 35 to 44 ■ 18 to 24 ■ Under 5 years <br /> Age Group <br /> ■ 45 to 64 ■ 25 to 34 ■ 5 to 17 <br /> Source:NC OSBM Population Projections;vintage 2025 <br /> In the chart above, we see that most of the recent and projected growth is concentrated in the 65-and-over age group, <br /> followed by the 45-64 age group. In the 65-and-over category, OSBM estimates 27,885 people in 2025, increasing to <br /> 36,328 in 2036 and 42,833 by 2060. Similarly, the 45-64 age group is projected to add 8,389 people between 2025 <br /> and 2036. The important thing to note, however, is that the school age population (5-17 years age group) is projected <br /> CAR 0 L I N A UP TJNC CAROLINA _ Demographic 12 <br /> DEMOGR PHY � lPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br /> a <br />