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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 14 <br /> Orange County Estimates and Forecast <br /> 2010 to 2060 <br /> 200,000 <br /> 184,202 <br /> 150,000 ;� <br /> 100,000 <br /> 50,000 <br /> 0 <br /> 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 <br /> Source:NC OSBM Population Projections;vintage 2025 <br /> The 2025-vintage projections are lower than those released last year (the 2024-vintage projections), which estimated <br /> Orange County's population would reach approximately 205,000 residents by 2060—about 20,000 people, or 10 <br /> percent, higher than the current projections (see figure below). The downward revision in the 2025 vintage reflects the <br /> incorporation of recent federal immigration policy changes. Recent OSBM analysis reports that North Carolina is <br /> expected to begin natural decrease (i.e. more deaths than births) in 2033, and without a substantial increase in fertility <br /> or life expectancy, future population growth will be driven solely by domestic and international migration.2 <br /> Orange County Population Projections:Vintage Comparison <br /> 2020-2060 by Vintage Year <br /> 250,000 <br /> 205,290 <br /> 200,000 .a <br /> ` 184,202 <br /> 150,000 <br /> 134,010 <br /> 100,000 <br /> 50,000 <br /> 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 <br /> Vintage + 2024 2025 <br /> Source:NC OSBM Population Projections;vintage 2024 and 2025 <br /> 2 North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management,"Immigration to Become Sole Driver of U.S.Population Growth,"March 12,2026. <br /> CAR 0 L I N A UP TJNC CAROLINA Demographic 11 <br /> DEMOGR PHY � lPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br /> a <br />