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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 13 <br /> North Carolina Market share by School Type: 2017-18 through 2024-25 <br /> 100% <br /> 6� 6® 6 6N 0% 7.0% 7.0% 8.0% <br /> 75% <br /> 50% <br /> 77.0% I' I <br /> 25% <br /> 0% <br /> 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 <br /> Home Schools 0 Private Schools 0 Charter Schools 0 Public Schools <br /> Source:Principal's Monthly Report(PMR 2)2018-2025;NC DPI;NC DOA <br /> Orange County Changes in Population, Enrollment, and ADM <br /> From those trends at the state level, we can start looking at county level trends. It is important to look at these trends <br /> because there are some datasets e.g. private school and home school student populations) that are not released at <br /> the school district level, but are released at the county level. Next, we turn to these trends before moving into a <br /> discussion of a few definitions as well as our general methodology for developing ADM forecasts. <br /> Population Changes <br /> The figure below shows the historic, as well as projected growth for Orange County from the 2025-vintage population <br /> projections released by the North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM). As we can see, growth <br /> between 2025 (latest available estimates), and 2060 continues to be modest, moving from over 154,000 residents in <br /> 2025 to over 184,000 residents in 2060. At the end of the projection period for this study -- the 2035-36 school year-- <br /> the population is projected to be approximately 164,000 in Orange County. <br /> C A R 0 L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 10 <br /> DEMOGR _ PHY lJJNC <br /> POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br />