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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 12 <br /> North Carolina:Kindergarten-to-Birth Ratio <br /> 150,000 <br /> .9 <br /> 100,000 .86 .87 .83 .83 .81 <br /> .75 <br /> 50,000 <br /> 0 <br /> 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 <br /> 0 Babies born 5 years earlier Kindergarten <br /> Source:Principal's Monthly Report(PMR 2)2016-2026;NC Birth Records,NC State Center for Health Statistics <br /> Market Share Trends <br /> Public Schools in North Carolina have experienced a consistent decline in market share, falling from 81% in 2017-18 <br /> to 74% in 2024-25. This shift coincides with the sustained increase in market share held by charter schools, which <br /> rose steadily from 6% to 9% over the same period. This significant growth in charter enrollment is strongly linked to <br /> state regulatory changes, particularly the lifting of the 100-school cap in 2011, which created an environment for their <br /> expansion and enhanced educational choice. Home Schools share saw a surge during the 2020-21 pandemic year, <br /> peaking at 10% before stabilizing around 9%. Private Schools also showed steady growth, from 6% in 2017-18 to <br /> reaching 8% by 2024-25, indicating a shifting market share trend. <br /> C A R O L I N A �I T CAROLINA Demographic 9 <br /> DEMOGR PHY lJJNC <br /> POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br />